That’s why I cringe whenever I hear the words “Joe Biden” and “landslide” in the same sentence. Predictions do not win elections. Polls do not elect presidents. If they did, Clinton would be running for her second term.
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So it doesn’t matter that Biden, the Democratic nominee, is now beating President Trump in most national and state polls, including one that has him up by 9 points. It’s irrelevant that the former vice president is trusted by more voters to better handle major issues from health care to the federal coronavirus response to an economy battered by the pandemic’s financial devastation.
Even on “law and order” — that loaded phrase Trump deploys to scare suburban white women by claiming that Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey will ravage their neighborhoods or some such racist nonsense, if his opponent is elected — Biden gets higher marks.
Yet Democrats cannot afford to again believe the hype of their nominee’s imminent victory.
“We can’t be complacent. I don’t care about the polls,” former President Barack Obama said Wednesday night in Philadelphia during a stump speech for Biden. The speech also served as a ferocious vivisection of Trump’s presidency and its impossible toll on this country.
“There were a whole bunch of polls last time,” Obama said. “It didn’t work out because a whole bunch of folks stayed at home and got lazy and complacent. Not this time, not in this election.”
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A Clinton victory was such a foregone conclusion that at least one political pundit declared the former secretary of state the winner nearly a year before the first primary. Fernando Espuelas, a political analyst, wrote in The Hill in March 2015, "It’s hard not to make such a prediction with confidence.”
As in sports — just ask the “undefeated” 2007 New England Patriots — foregone conclusions in politics are a setup for busted dreams and bitter tears. If Democrats want to beat Trump, they have to fight in these remaining days as if Biden were trailing Trump by 10 points. No lead should be assumed safe, especially with extensive voter suppression and foreign interference affecting the campaign.
Biden’s camp recognizes this, and is taking nothing for granted. In a memo to supporters this month, Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign manager, warned, “The very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race, and every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire. The reality is that this race is far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest.”
It’s also a searing truth that Trump will do anything to win. He has denigrated mail-in voting; repeatedly threatened to send an “army” to polling places as an intimidation tactic; and, referring to the Supreme Court, said, “I’m counting on them to look at the ballots, definitely,” if he doesn’t win. Recent weeks have unfolded like an epic mad scene with a cacophony of lies. The Washington Post’s intrepid fact checkers calculate that Trump is now making about 50 “false or misleading claims” a day. Of course, he’s mocking and spewing untruths about Biden’s record and policy proposals.
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Yet he also has watermarked lies for his white base who are still seething over eight years of Obama, and fears that Senator Kamala Harris may be a heartbeat from the presidency if Biden wins. One can never underestimate the depths of white grievance and resentment that helped land a profoundly bad businessman in the White House.
For Democrats there can be no letup, including in closely watched Senate races. Assumptions that Biden has victory on lock could be another path to shocking defeat. This time, Obama said, “We’ve got to out-hustle the other side.” Out-hustle, outspend, out-organize, outthink. There are no laurels to rest on, not with an incumbent president attacking democracy itself and refusing to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he’s defeated.
Those who support Biden must fight like there’s no tomorrow — because if Trump wins (or steals) four more years, for too many Americans, there won’t be a tomorrow.
Renée Graham can be reached at renee.graham@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @reneeygraham.
The Link LonkOctober 24, 2020 at 02:01PM
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/10/24/opinion/forget-polls-democrats-must-fight-like-underdogs/
Forget the polls — Democrats must fight like underdogs - The Boston Globe
https://news.google.com/search?q=forget&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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