(COMBO) This combination of pictures created on October 22, 2020 shows US President Donald Trump (L) ... [+]
AFP via Getty ImagesAs the candidates head into the final sprint leading up to Election Day, the polls suggest it is former Vice President Joe Biden's race to lose – but the polls were wrong four years ago, and are certainly not the only indicator of who will come out on top this election. Social media, which has certainly changed the way candidates have reached voters, could also offer some insight into who is actually likely to win the race come Tuesday.
According to data from Embee Mobile's Real-Time 2020 Election Tracker, which is updated in near real time, President Donald Trump has maintained a slight edge over Biden based on Facebook user opinions – but Biden edges out Trump on Instagram, LinkdeIn, Reddit, Snapchat and Tik Tok.
"The way Embee Mobile gets its data is completely different than all other polling – we engage people differently, it is proprietary, and it's balanced on how people voted in 2016 and not by party association," explained Russell Tillitt, founder and CEO of Embee Mobile. "This is important because if there is a systematic bias among the major polling firms because of some underlying common assumption or turn-out model, we should see differences between our results and their results. But largely our top-line results are similar to major polls. That said, we do have deeper insights due to the data we have."
Different Demographics
The easiest argument for why the different social media platforms are predicting a different outcome on Tuesday (if the results are even known by then), is based on the demographics of the platform.
"This reflects the demographics of the three sites and the makeup of voters nationally," explained Lawrence Parnell, associate professor and director of the Strategic Public Relations program at The Graduate School of Political Management at The George Washington University.
"Facebook users are older and likely more conservative and/or Republican; LinkedIn's users are spread across multiple age groups of voters; and Redditt tends to skew younger compared to the other two and its users are likely registered Democrats – or leaning that way," added Parnell. "As such, it is significant mostly in that it confirms the demographic makeup of the supporters of the two candidates."
Different Likeminded Groups
Facebook is also far better suited to "groups," where likeminded users can share and discuss their thoughts on the issues they care about. However, other demographics could come into play, including the fact that both LinkedIn and Reddit simply skew to a younger, and notably more educated demographic than Facebook. This has meant that there is no discussion of the issues.
"Traditionally, younger more educated voters have leaned left," suggested Dr. Tarshia Stanley, Dean of the School of Humanities, Arts, and Sciences at St. Catherine University. "LinkedIn was originally more business and career-oriented, although of late it has become a place where individuals and companies prove their socio-political ideologies."
The New Media
This isn't the first social media election, but the platforms have still been evolving with each election cycle. This however, could be the first time that it is used not only for candidates to connect with an audience but as a polling platform to see how Americans might vote.
"Many recognize President Obama's first campaign for the presidency as the entry point of social media's influence into our mainstream politics," said Dr. Kent Bausman, a professor in the Online Sociology program at Maryville University.
"Interestingly, a recent study from May examining the effects of social media use on political contributions found that the effects of social media on generating monetary contributions was minimally significant," Bausman added. "However, what was particularly fascinating was that the effects were actually larger for 'new' rather than 'incumbent' political candidates. In this sense, social media's emergence has served as a counter-weight to the deeply funded political machines that many incumbent candidates have established."
Where Are The Wedges?
One final actor to consider is that this cycle there are really no "wedge issues" being debated by the candidates – apart perhaps from how each would handle the ongoing novel coronavirus pandemic. By and large Trump supporters and Biden supporters are simply talking about different issues.
"What conservative, Trump-leaning voters care about the most – before gun rights, abortion, etc. is that their First Amendment rights are at risk," said Tillitt. "This group of people, who are highly active on Facebook, feel their voices are being suppressed by technology companies, the government, their employers, political correctness. They also care more about the economy than they do about the pandemic. LinkedIn users are most concerned about healthcare and the economy and with this group, First Amendment issues don't register at all. So, we have two completely independent spheres of concern."
This is distinctly different from previous elections when there were such wedge that all Americans agreed were important but generally disagreed about what to do about them.
"In this election, different groups of voters care about distinctly different issues – one group cares about First Amendment issues, the other group isn't even aware it's a concern," added Tillitt. "Put another way: there are no wedge issues anymore. We have two distinct groups of people living in parallel-issues universes."
They're also communicating on different social media platforms. The result is that whichever of the candidates wins the country is unlikely to come together anytime soon.
The Link LonkOctober 29, 2020 at 07:00PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2020/10/29/forget-what-the-polls-say-social-media-predicts-this-candidate-will-be-the-next-president/
Forget What The Polls Say, Social Media Predicts This Candidate Will Be The Next President - Forbes
https://news.google.com/search?q=forget&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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