GMs should be guided by the difference between the player's "expected value" and his actual cost at the time of acquisition. And, yes, it is certainly fair to factor in character, heart, desire etc. into the expected value calculation. For these reasons and others, the concept of expected value is subjective.
My definition of BPA:
If I expect a player value of 10 and I am paying only 9, the pick has an expected surplus value = 1 and I could assume I have made a good pick. But have I made the best possible pick? Maybe not. For example, if there is a player with an expected surplus value > 1, would he not be the better pick?
It is conceivable that a CB could provide the greatest surplus value every time you are ready to pick. Of course, nobody drafts 10 CBs in the same year. Thus, having all bases covered, at least to some degree, has its own value that must be factored in as well.
The above approach outlines the basic thought process that a GM must go through in order to arrive at a result. In the end, each selection is then a complex judgment/weighing of all these factors.
Ideally, I'd look for a player that in my opinion, has a high floor and high ceiling and an expected surplus expected value > 0 and as great or greater than any other player.
Injury history is a factor as well. Landon Dickerson might be a great pick at 29 this year except for his injury history. Caleb Farley might have been a great pick at 10 this year except for his two back surgeries. The added risk may cause Farley to fall into the 20s before his preceived expected value equals his actual cost.
What made Ron Wolf a great GM was not his top selections, it was his lower selections i.e., he possessed a really good radar for finding good football players later in the draft (surplus value) but not so much when it came to the better players - exception being Brett Favre of course.
Ted Thompson did a better overall job than Wolf at the top of the draft and less so in the later rounds. The jury is still out on Gutey. Except for missing on his R2 and R3 picks in year 1, he did a nice job his first 2 years. However, that is a big "except for". Year 3 was a head scratcher in terms of preceived surplus value unless you factor in that he and MLF were anxious to tool up for the full version of his offense combined with wanting to be able to get out from under AR as soon as he began declining in value. He also picked up some nice players late and in UDFA e.g.,
J Runyan, D Dafney, K Martin, V Scott, K Barnes, H Black, J Garvin and R Ramsey.
So if Love pans out, the 2020 draft and UDFA will be a stellar class. If he doesn't, it will be what this draft is most remembered for. I think Love has a high ceiling and I think we paid fair value for him but what we all worry about is how low is his floor.
The upcoming draft should provide a good basis for further evaluation of Gutey because the possibilities seem endless, trade up/down, exercise the pick, and if so, position of need or another surprise pick or a player "we" all think was over-drafted i.e., negative surplus value. CB/OT/DT seem like the logical needs but a WR wouldn't shock nor would a LB or even S if Gutey sees surplus value in that player. My expectation is he trades up to grab Farley or Newsome. Toney or Bateman or Baremore at 29 wouldn't shock me nor would the Syracuse CB. A trade down would really open things up.
Buckle up and enjoy the ride.
The Link LonkApril 13, 2021 at 09:52PM
https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/corys-corner-forget-about-draft-value-150
Cory's Corner: Forget About Draft Value - Cheesehead TV
https://news.google.com/search?q=forget&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
No comments:
Post a Comment